Independent learnersTrace and verifyExample · 1 question · 2 min

Trace a Claim to Its Source

Follow a dramatic health claim back through a news summary to the study behind it, and decide what an honest retelling must include.

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A post says “Risk doubles!”. The study behind it: in 12 months, 2 instead of 1 event per 10,000 adults; the 95 % interval for the relative risk runs from 0.2 to 20. What belongs in a fair retelling?

The doubling itself, because 2 instead of 1 is a 100 % rise and the key number.The absolute numbers, the very wide interval and that the study does not prove a cause.

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Look at the source study first: how many people, over what time, and how sure is the estimate?

About this activity

What you practise: Turn a relative headline back into absolute numbers, uncertainty and study type before you pass it on.

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A post says “Risk doubles!”. The study behind it: in 12 months, 2 instead of 1 event per 10,000 adults; the 95 % interval for the relative risk runs from 0.2 to 20. What belongs in a fair retelling? The post and the news summary only say the risk doubled. The study behind them followed two groups of 10,000 adults for 12 months: 1 event in one group, 2 in the other. The 95 % interval for the relative risk runs from 0.2 to 20. The study only observed; it did not test a cause. “Doubled” is true but tells you little: the difference is 1 extra event per 10,000 people in a year. The interval from 0.2 to 20 shows the estimate is very uncertain, and an observational study cannot show cause. A fair retelling names all three.