University learnersChange and interpretExample · 4 steps · 8 min

Epidemic Model Decisions

Read an invented infection curve, predict what a lower transmission rate does, check the peaks against a clinic limit and decide what the model can claim.

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Your example

Baseline run: infected people over time

Model day · Infected at the same time · people (model)

An invented town of 1,000 people, transmission rate 0.32 per day. Infected at the same time: day 8: 12, day 12: 41, day 16: 74, day 20: 66, day 24: 52.

Show data as a table

Model day	Infected at the same time
Day 8	12
Day 12	41
Day 16	74
Day 20	66
Day 24	52

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Which sentence describes the baseline curve correctly?

It rises the whole time shown, so day 24 is the worst day.It rises until day 16, peaks at about 74, then falls.It stays flat until day 12, then jumps once to 74.

About this activity

What you practise: Reading a model curve, predicting how a parameter shifts peak height and timing, and naming the limits of a model.

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Which sentence describes the baseline curve correctly? An invented town of 1,000 people, transmission rate 0.32 per day. Infected at the same time: day 8: 12, day 12: 41, day 16: 74, day 20: 66, day 24: 52. The highest value, 74, is on day 16. After that fewer people are infected at the same time, even though the epidemic is not over yet.