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Make a Decision Under Uncertainty

Compare options across value, downside, reversibility, and confidence, then record the decision logic.

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Comparing the options

Option	Committed	Confidence	Way back
Full rollout	€180,000	low	90 days
Pilot	€45,000	medium	2 days
Limit	max. €50,000	–	max. 7 days

Two options before a review in six weeks. Full rollout: €180,000 committed, low confidence, 90 days to reverse. Pilot: €45,000 committed, medium confidence, 2 days to reverse. Limit: at most €50,000 and at most 7 days to reverse.

Choose one answer

Demand is uncertain. Before a review in six weeks, no option may expose more than €50,000 or lose a rollback path under seven days. Which option best preserves learning?

Start the pilot at €45,000 with a 2-day way back, clear success measures and a stop check after six weeks.Start the full rollout because it has the highest expected value, and review it after six weeks.

About this activity

What you practise: Calibrate commitment to evidence, downside, reversibility, and a named review point instead of treating an estimate as a promise.

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Demand is uncertain. Before a review in six weeks, no option may expose more than €50,000 or lose a rollback path under seven days. Which option best preserves learning? Two options before a review in six weeks. Full rollout: €180,000 committed, low confidence, 90 days to reverse. Pilot: €45,000 committed, medium confidence, 2 days to reverse. Limit: at most €50,000 and at most 7 days to reverse. The pilot stays below the €50,000 exposure limit, preserves a two-day rollback, and produces evidence before the six-week review. The full rollout has the largest upside estimate but exposes €180,000, has low confidence, and needs 90 days to reverse.